A Full Bracketology Update - My 46 At-Large Bids, Ranked

More than two thirds of the way into this college basketball season, we're finally starting to get a feel for how the bracket might shape up. Look no further for the most detailed bracketology edition you're going to find, a full report on all 46 teams that I'd give an at-large bid if the season ended today, ranked in order from 1-46 and separated by seed line.

1 Seeds

Auburn (21-1, 9-0 SEC)

No team has been on Auburn's level through the first 2/3 of this college basketball season, the clear No. 1 overall seed with the best record in the country and their only loss on the road against the only other team that might have a claim to this spot. Auburn loaded up its non-conference schedule and made it look easy, winning a loaded Maui field with a pair of ranked wins to go along with neutral site wins over Houston and Purdue, a pair of teams you'll see in the top-4 later on in the article. And in the gauntlet of the SEC, where it's only right at least a little bit of vulnerability is shown, Auburn has gotten through their first nine games unscathed. Johni Broome might be the best player in college basketball, but Auburn navigated through the SEC just fine without him, showing that many, if any, in the country can atch their depth and balance. The Tigers haven't even gotten to the brunt of their SEC schedule - the last two weeks of the regular season are where it really heats up - but their 12 quad 1 wins are still the most in the country by a mile with plenty more opportunities to come. No team has looked sharper this season than Auburn, and they're the No. 1 overall seed as it stands without much competition.

Duke (20-2, 12-0 ACC)

The one other team with an argument for the top spot is Duke, the only team to beat Auburn this season in a year that's gone about as well as they could've asked for with Cooper Flagg highlighting a talented mix of incoming freshman and experience. Duke lost a pair of close ones to Kentucky and Kansas in the first month of the season, with Flagg's late-game inexperience coming to the forefront of both, but they got right back on their feet with the win over Auburn and have gone largely untested in a very down year for the rest of the ACC. Wake Forest and NC State were the only teams to play the Blue Devils close in non-conference play, as they've wiped the floor with just about everyone else and most recently archrival UNC in a telling result of where both programs are at. As Flagg gets more reps under his belt this team is only getting scarier, and he already might be the best player in the country, the clear Wooden Award favorite in a year he began too young to even be eligible to be bet on. As it stands now, and more likely than not, Duke will go its entire ACC schedule without facing a ranked opponent. Outside of a random February meeting with Illinois at MSG, the only real tests they might have remaining are road tilts with Clemson and perhaps UNC. Not many teams up here can stay the same, so the Blue Devils have a particularly favorable path to holding firm in this positioning, making them probably as likely as anyone to enter the big dance with a No. 1 seed.

Alabama (19-3, 8-1 SEC)

Alabama, much like their in-state rival Auburn, has cracked the code in an SEC schedule that gives you no days off. The Crimson Tide just know how to win, sporting the best scoring offense in college basketball at over 90 points a game with a knack for figuring it out down the stretch of close games. Not many can touch what 'Bama has done away from home - they've beaten Houston, Kentucky Illinois, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and UNC all outside of Coleman Coliseum, and for a team so reliant on its scoring output, off days aren't in their vocabulary having only scored less than 80 points three times in their 22 games this season. The Tide are really starting to find their rhythm with five wins in a row, and they've got a pair of unranked games on the horizon before a historical stretch with seven ranked opponents in a row follows to end their regular season. With just three losses to their name through an SEC schedule and a loaded non-conference, Alabama is the unquestioned third overall seed with a pair of meetings with Auburn still to come.

Tennessee (19-4, 6-4 SEC)

The first big decision I've had to make comes here with Tennessee getting the nod over Florida for the final top seed, paying homage to a far more gruesome schedule they've played and just one more loss to show for it. The Vols were the top-ranked team in the nation for a while before an ugly, just about indefensible loss to Florida, but they avenged that loss with a blowout win over those Gators this past Saturday in a much-needed victory that launches them back onto the top line. Outside of that Florida loss, Tennessee's other three losses have come by one, two, and five points respectively, and they've largely cruised through the rest of conference play after going undefeated in their non-conference slate. There's not one win over a team currently projected to be in the field between Florida and Houston's non-conference schedules, while Tennessee's got wins away from home against Louisville, Illinois, and Baylor along the way to their perfect non-conference mark. With the best defensive rating in the country, Tennessee can hang in there with anybody, and they played their recent road tilt with Auburn at their pace, albeit in a loss, and that's an Auburn team with the best offensive rating in college basketball. The Vols haven't been the sharpest to open SEC play, but they showed they can score the ball too when need be in tonight's big win over Mizzou. Having played a tougher conference and non-conference schedule than Florida gives them the leverage for some off nights, and it keeps them right on the 1-line after two of their biggest wins of the season.

2 Seeds

Florida (19-3, 6-3 SEC)

Florida dropped its first real dud of the season scoring just 44 points in Saturday's loss to Tennessee, dropping them behind the Vols as they've finally started to show some vulnerability in this dog days of SEC play. The head-to-heads between the two won't give you much - both lost to one another on the road in what was easily each of their most dreadful performances of the season and the losses outside of that have all come by the slimmest of margins. Florida's non-conference was admittedly a cakewalk, but they opened conference play with a valiant showing despite the loss putting up 100 points in a narrow defeat at Rupp Arena. Their other non-Tennesse loss came by a point to a now ranked Missouri team, and their 6-3 start to conference play is something to be proud of especially coming off a win over Vandy without Walter Clayton Jr. Florida stays put atop the 2-line Tennessee makes the leap while Houston takes a fall coming off their first loss in forever, with strength of schedule the deciding factor working against the Gators for now with the aforementioned weak non-conference play and the toughest of SEC play still to come.

Houston (18-4, 10-1 Big 12)

The Cougars didn't get the edge over the two SEC rivals as a testament to the schedule they've played, with much of the brunt of this Big 12 schedule ahead of them and a non-conference resume not quite impressive enough. Nevertheless, this team has been dominant for over two months now, even with their unexpected slip-up this Saturday that knocked them off the top line. The Big 12 hasn't nearly been up to par with years past, but Houston stole a win in their biggest test yet with a miraculous victory over Kansas, doing something so few have pulled off leaving Allen Fieldhouse with a win. Now if you know anything about that game you'll know the Cougars had no business winning that game, and the quality wins are few and far between outside of that. They lost all three of their real non-conference tests, albeit all by slim margins, but they've mastered beating who they're supposed to beat and will have a plethora of great opportunities on the way as they finish up conference play. Houston's defensive rating is the second-best in college basketball with a roster with no shortage of big-game experience, so the Cougars will again be a force come March and have been as good as anyone in the Big 12 thus far this season.

Texas A&M (17-5, 6-3 SEC)

Getting the bump for the final spot on the 2-line is Texas A&M, who continues to play quality SEC basketball and has began to separate itself as one of the true contenders in this conference. The Aggies played a fascinating non-conference schedule that really didn't give them much opportunity to coast, a 13-game slate that remarkable featured eight power conference teams. A&M managed to pick up notable wins over Purdue, Texas Tech, Creighton, and Wake Forest in that span, and it's those victories within that crowded schedule that gives them the edge over a Missouri team coming in hot. The Aggies slipped up against Alabama and Kentucky and blew a huge lead in a loss to Texas, but stealing road wins over Ole Miss and Oklahoma has been instrumental in putting them in the position they're in right now. It obviously isn't getting any easier for Texas A&M moving forward, but with title of fourth-best team in the SEC very much up for grabs, the Aggies have the resume to snatch it as of now.

Purdue (18-5, 10-2 Big Ten)

The Boilermakers have flown largely under the radar to this point this season, but they're exactly where they wanted to be with the lead in the Big Ten and a good chance at doing some damage in the first year post-Zach Edey. Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Ren have stepped up exactly the way Purdue was going to need if they wanted to stick to their contending ways, and their home crowd edge continues to be as big as advantage as any in college basketball. Purdue has largely matched up with the bottom of the Big Ten to this point, though they absolutely humiliated Michigan not long ago to go with a big road win over Oregon all within the last month. The non-conference win over Alabama continues to look like one of the best wins of this entire season, and all three of their non-conference losses can be sympathized with against Marquette, Texas A&M, and Auburn respectively. That, to go with early season wins over a pair of ranked teams in Maryland and Ole Miss, and the Boilermakers are tied for fourth in the country in quad 1 wins. As the Michigan schools plus the potential contenders out West continue to struggle with consistency, Purdue has stepped in as the likely Big Ten favorite with a month to go in this regular season.

3 Seeds

Texas Tech (18-4, 9-2 Big 12)

The Red Raiders continue to fly under the radar in a packed Big 12, but Saturday's road win over Houston made their success a lot more difficult to ignore. The Red Raiders' non-conference schedule wasn't anything to be proud of - they lose two games in a stretch where only one opponent is even going to sniff an at-large bid - but they've turned it up a notch in conference play after losing their Big 12 opener. Following that loss to UCF, their only conference loss has been a one-point OT loss to Iowa State in a game that easily could've, and maybe should've gone their way, and they've since rolled past Arizona and Baylor and got the biggest Big 12 win any team has this season with a road win over Houston this Saturday. That win really pushed them over the top, and them and Houston are now the only teams in the entire conference with under five losses. The Red Raiders have some big tests still to come, but this exciting start to conference play has them exactly where they want to be a week into February.

Iowa State (17-5, 5-4 Big 12)

The Cyclones were a sure-fire No. 1 seed less than two weeks ago, but they've been in a free-fall ever since and are lucky to still be in the top-12. It's far too early to say this with conviction, but their response to Caleb Love's half-court game-tying shot gives me the feel of the Bears' post-Hail Mary loss. They'll end up winning plenty more games than Chicago, but they followed that up with an inexplicable blowout home loss to sub-.500 Kansas State and looked uncompetitive in Monday's most recent loss to Kansas. The Cyclones have a favorable stretch coming up to right the ship, and I do still feel this is certainly back to being a top-10 team once they snap out of this funk. ISU doesn't have a ton of big wins, but a trio of wins against Texas Tech, Marquette, and Kansas, all of which ranked on the top-4 lines, is something to be proud of. Just five losses this deep in the season isn't for the weak, and this team was ranked 3rd in the country as recently as the last AP Poll and slips into the top-12 because of it.

Kansas (16-6, 7-4 Big 12)

Kansas has dropped more winnable games than they would've liked so far this season, but it's hard to argue this isn't a legitimate contender with one of the most talented and complete rosters college basketball has to offer. The Jayhawks beat three blue bloods - Duke, Michigan State, and UNC - in non-conference play, and they picked up their biggest Big 12 win yet with a blowout of Iowa State this Monday. But let these last two Saturdays tell you everything you need to know on why this isn't a top-3 seed quite yet - they blew a 21-point lead in a loss to Baylor and had one of the most disastrous collapses in recent memory against Houston - and it's eerily similar issues to what kept from from the top 3 lines last season as well. The schedule eases up quite a bit these next few weeks for Kansas, so don't be surprised to see a leap on the horizon with a much more favorable stretch than most around these parts.

Marquette (18-5, 9-3 Big East)

Marquette remains ahead of their Big East counterpart St. John's even after their narrow loss on the road, which knocked them to the bottom of the 3-line after consecutive Big East defeats. Marquette was one of the best teams in college basketball navigating a difficult non-conference schedule, but the fact of the matter is there's just not enough opportunity for quality wins in their conference, and they've dropped the last two in the best chances they're going to get. Wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Georgia will go a long way in elevating their stock even in a down year in the Big East, and they're really going to need it without a chance to beat another ranked team until the final week of the regular season. The Golden Eagles were as high as a 2 before this recent skid, and they'll have to get their rhythm back against the middle of the conference if they want to get back to that point.

4 Seeds

Missouri (17-5, 6-3 SEC)

Maybe the most underrated team in college basketball right now, it's amazing to me this Missouri team isn't getting more buzz. In a conference where every single night is a grind, Mizzou hasn't looked particularly phased en route to a 6-3 start, taking down Florida a few weeks back and sweeping the Mississippis capped off by absolute obliteration in Starkville. The Tigers also have a win over Kansas in non-conference play, though that was about all they can boast about that period, and all five of their losses have come to projected tournament teams. Missouri's strength of schedule doesn't stack up to many around these parts, but I was impressed with how they hung with Tennessee on the road last night and we'll learn a lot more about them on Saturday against A&M. As the losses continue to pile up for teams around this spot, Mizzou has avoided many detrimental nights and is quietly rising fast, all the way to the highest of the 4-line for the first time this season.

Kentucky (15-7, 4-5 SEC)

A team squeaking into the top-4 lines with a sub-.500 mark certainly isn't a common occurrence, but a gruesome schedule and a plethora of great wins to show for it is enough to do the trick. Kentucky is one of two teams this season to beat Duke plus non-conference wins over Gonzaga and Louisville, and all four of their conference wins have come against top-25 teams. With wins over Duke, Tennessee, and Florida, they're the only team in the nation to have beaten three of my top five overall seeds, two of which away from home plus impressive victories at Mississippi State and against Texas A&M. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the Wildcats even with this recent slide, much of which can be attributed to injury, as they ranked tied for third in college basketball with seven quad 1 wins and have one of the most well-rounded and deep rosters in the country. If Kentucky is able to finish SEC play just a bit over .500, they'll surely have the wins to make a strong case for at least a top-5 seed.

Memphis (19-4, 9-1 American)

Penny Hardaway and Memphis surprised a lot of people with a strong non-conference performance highlighted by a run to the Maui final, and they've mostly handled business in the American and avoided many slip-ups when just about every game is a potential trap. A brutal year for the American meant Memphis had to make the most of the non-conference and they did, notching wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson, and Ole Miss in one of the toughest non-conference schedules in all of college basketball. Tyrese Hunter and P.J. Haggerty have been exactly what Memphis was hoping for, and if the Tigers can keep up their winning ways against inferior competition than they could be in line for as high as a top 3 seed when it's all said and done. Memphis' five quad 1 wins rank tied for fifth in the country and since they probably won't have the chance to pick up many more, each one will go a long way in elevating their eventual placement.

St. John's (20-3, 11-1 Big East)

St. John's strength of schedule was justifiably limiting their rise up the brackets even amidst this ascension up the Big East, but tonight's win over Marquette may have just broke the seal. The Johnnies had just one quad 1 win entering today but had been finding ways to win the way past Red Storm teams had been allergic to doing, and they grinded another one out over a Marquette team that might very well be their biggest challenger to a potentially stunning Big East title. St. John's is making a living off grit and strength on the defensive end and the offensive glass, and newfound expectations aren't phasing them as they've now won 15 of their last 16 games to match their best conference start since 1985. You can still pick holes in the Red Storm schedule, and those won't be easy to dispute, but at some point credit has to be due for a Big East team into the month of February with just three losses. Only three other four other power conference teams can even say that, and they make up four of the top five overall seeds. Rick Pitino has officially arrived.

5 Seeds

Ole Miss (17-6, 6-4 SEC)

Just the latest sneaky good SEC team you can't take lightly, Ole Miss is putting together a big season under Chris Beard that has him right in the thick of the conference race, and it's given them a number of big wins to build their conference resume off of. Non-conference wins over BYU and Louisville continue to age better and better, and they put together maybe their best performance of the season last night in a rout of Kentucky at home. If that wasn't their best showing then it was their road win at Alabama, still the only time the Tide have fallen in Tuscaloosa this season. All six of their losses have come at the hands of ranked teams, while the wins are as good as maybe any you'll find around thee seeding lines. Six losses for an SEC team this deep in the year is an admirable mark, as Beard has done a masterful job turning a program with no track record of success into a legitimate player within this loaded conference.

Michigan State (18-4, 9-2 Big Ten)

This is as low as you'll find this MSU team seeded, and I certainly understand why, but the true colors of this team were revealed out west over this last week or so. The Spartans played in the Maui and the Champions Classic and lost both of the games they had against tournament-worthy opponents, and they managed to slip through their first nine games of conference play with just one, maybe two games against teams expected to be in the field. They edged out Illinois and took down Ohio State on the road, easily their two best wins of this season, and I'm not giving the benefit of the doubt to team whose next best victory came in OT against North Carolina. 9-2 in a strong conference is obviously something, and it shows they can handle business against the teams they should, but my fears they've been merchants of the bottom of the conference might have been realized as they dropped a pair of winnable games out west. For Michigan State, a drop down to the 7-line was obviously harsh, and there's plenty of room for a big leap if they can add some nice wins to the resume. But as of now, their quality of wins just aren't where they need to be, and this latest skid was enough to tumble down a few tiers.

Maryland (17-5, 7-4 Big Ten)

There wasn't much reason to believe the Terrapins would be much after an 0-2 west coast trip brought them to 11-4 early in the new year, but they've turned a corner as of late with their only loss since January 5th coming at the buzzer to Northwestern. Since then they've notched impressive wins over UCLA, Illinois, and Wisconsin, three of the best teams in the Big Ten, and they stole one from Indiana at Assembly Hall less under two weeks ago to keep this hot streak rolling. Maryland didn't have much to show for before this recent stretch, but they've been winning the games they need to and looked right up there with the conference's best when they've needed to, and they still haven't lost a game at home since the first two weeks of the season. The Terps get the edge over Wisconsin and Michigan with the wins they've put assembled in conference play, and they could rise even further without a ranked team on their schedule another three whole weeks.

Michigan (17-5, 9-2 Big Ten)

Coming off what was literally Michigan's worst season in program history, Dusty May has engineered exactly the turnaround they were hoping for and has them firmly in the tournament picture and in the thick of this Big Ten race. Of Michigan's five losses, the first four came by a combined eight points before they got the brakes blown off of them at Mackey Arena. Among those narrow losses was a game-winning four-point play by Oklahoma trailing by three and a half-court buzzer-beater from Minnesota, a testament to how close the Wolverines are to an even more polished resume if they were just a little bit better at closing out games. Nevertheless, they won on the road at Wisconsin early in conference play and have a non-conference win over Xavier that is aging better and better, and maybe their best work this season was a west coast sweep of UCLA and USC, something their in-state rival MSU could learn a thing or two about after these last few days. Michigan's toughest stretches of Big Ten play are yet to come, and that'll be a good time to stack up the wins that can help separate them from the pack.

6 Seeds

Arizona (16-6, 10-1 Big 12)

After a non-conference run that had them looking like one of college basketball's biggest disappointments, Arizona has completely flipped a switch since Big 12 play began and looks like a brand new team with real aspirations of contending. The Wildcats had plenty of chances at quality wins in non-conference play and blew them all, but they've largely cruised through conference play so far with road wins at West Virginia and BYU and that unforgettable overtime win over Iowa State. This team is playing with a new sense of confidence and direction with just one loss since December 14th, and they're quietly trending upwards as much as anyone in college basketball since Big 12 play began.

UCLA (17-6, 8-4 Big Ten)

Mick Cronin took a lot of heat for his harsh postgame presser after a home loss to Michigan, and after getting two more losses out of their system that made it four in a row, this UCLA team has recovered as well as they could've expected and is back where they would like to be. Three of their four straight wins since that disastrous Big Ten start have come against teams ranked at the time, blowing out Oregon and edging Wisconsin and MSU all in the last 15 days, so they've got a nice set of wins going for them having also taken down Gonzaga and Arizona in non-conference play. Every team, or most of them at least, have their rough stretches over the course of a 30+ game regular season, and outside of that tough entrance to the Big Ten, this Bruins team has been at least a top-20 team just about the entire rest of the way.

Wisconsin (18-5, 5-4 Big Ten)

Aside from a three-game skid the Badgers fell into in early December, this team has played consistently good basketball as one of the very best offensive teams in the country. They've avoided any major slip-ups - all five losses are to teams that will be playing in the big dance - though the big wins are a bit scarce aside from an early-season win over Arizona. It's that lack of quality wins that sets them behind the likes of fellow Big Ten foes Maryland and Michigan, as while Wisconsin did nab wins over UCF and Pittsburgh in the non-conference, a two-point win over Ohio State is really the only Big Ten win they can point to as having any sort of real merit. There will be plenty more chances down the stretch of an increasingly tough schedule, but the Badgers for now can't be complaining with what's tied for the best record in the entire Big Ten.

UConn (16-6, 8-3 Big East)

This second straight title defense hasn't exactly gone according to plan for Dan Hurley and co., as the Huskies have had some of their lowest lows in years this season yet still find themselves in the thick of the Big East race with a good shot a high enough seed for another deep run. UConn fell apart in the Maui with a stunning 0-3 week, but they re-gained their footing and finished out non-conference play undefeated with wins over Baylor, Texas, and Gonzaga. They've had a few lapses in Big East play in close losses to Villanova, Creighton, and Xavier, but Saturday's road win over Marquette taught us we'd be foolish to ever really count out the back-to-back defending champs. It may not be quite up to par with past years but this is still another really talented roster with no shortage of experience, and if the Huskies stay around this area of the bracket rest of the way, the higher seed that draws UConn in the second round is going to be shaking in their boots with what this team is capable of. Maybe the game of the year in the Big East will be this Saturday as they take on St. John's, and with a road test against Creighton to follow that, the Huskies have all the chances they need coming up for exactly the rise they're looking for.

7 Seeds

Mississippi State (16-6, 4-5 SEC)

Mississippi State is another team just trying to make its way through the SEC, though they haven't quite been as fortunate rattling off the quality conference wins the way others have. Of their four SEC wins, two are against a South Carolina team winless in conference play - once in OT - and the other two are over Vandy and Ole Miss respectively. A 4-5 SEC mark isn't bad by any means, but they've dropped most of their opportunities at the resume-boosting wins and thus seem themselves last of the bunch of the nine SEC teams ranked in the top-25. A road win over Memphis might have been their most complete performance yet, and a road win over SMU and a blowout of Pitt aren't too shabby either, though it's not quite something to write home about with how these other SEC resumes are looking. Nevertheless, it's a breakthrough year for the Bulldogs with plenty of room for growth, and a start to the season they're surely content with under Chris Jans.

Illinois (15-8, 7-6 Big Ten)

The Fighting Illini are still yet to really find their footing this season, but that hasn't kept them from the top-25 ranking for the majority of this year. Illinois has a win over Wisconsin and a 32-point road win against Oregon, though it's a work in progress to find too many other big wins as they've been more average than not for most of Big Ten play. The non-conference had some opportunities, and the win over Missouri was a good one, but they slipped up in a golden chance at home in a buzzer-beating loss to previously No. 1 Tennessee. They've been about as good at home as they've been away from it, a blessing and a curse in itself, and two of their losses have come in OT while two more have come by just two points. Yesterday's loss to Rutgers hurts and was just an uninspiring sign more so than anything else, and with such a brutal stretch coming up to finish out the year, the Illini could be at real risk at falling to the bubble if they don't figure it out fast. This is a very talented Illinois team that if they just string some consistency together, they'll be a team nobody wants to see in March.

Oregon (16-7, 5-7 Big Ten)

The Ducks have been in free fall, dropping four in a row and five of their last six, but it's their eight quad 1 wins that rank second in the country that's going to continue to prop them up. It hasn't been pretty at points for Oregon - they have two losses this season by 26 points or more and have already dropped four games at home - but the schedule has been packed enough with more than enough opportunities for resume-building wins. Victories over Alabama, Texas A&M, San Diego State, Creighton in the non-conference gave them real momentum entering their first ever Big 12 play, and even with some slip-ups they've notched wins over Maryland and at Ohio State to highlight conference play. Only the No. 1 overall seed Auburn has more quad 1 wins than Oregon, so this team can only fall so far even amidst this slide, but they're going to need to win more games eventually with a good opportunity this Saturday against Michigan State.

Louisville (17-6, 10-2 ACC)

Pat Kelsey's turnaround is in full force here at Louisville, as the nightmare of the early 2020s seems like a thing of the past with the Cardinals finally back in thick of the ACC mix. It wasn't the smoothest of sailing early on - Louisville opened just 6-5 as a victim of a loaded non-conference slate, but they've made the most of a down year in the ACC and it has them in great position for their first NCAA Tournament berth in years. The Cardinals had won 10 in a row before a disappointing loss to Georgia Tech, but that streak included road wins over Pitt and SMU as they've made the most of a down year in the conference where opportunities at quality wins have grown scarce. Louisville is in as good a spot as they could've imagined after what's transpired in recent years, and all their losses prior to GA Tech have been good ones. If the Cardinals can continue to take care of who they should in the ACC, they've got a chance at being the higher seed in their first Round of 64 since 2019.

8 Seeds

Creighton (17-6, 10-2 Big East)

Creighton's season seemed to be in real trouble once Pop Isaacs went down following their huge win over Kansas, but they've righted the ship and have themselves positioned well for another year of tournament basketball under Greg McDermott. The Bluejays barely slipped by Villanova on Saturday and yesterday's road win over Providence took them to 10-2 in conference play, a pretty remarkable turnaround after their Big East slate began with a 24-point loss to Georgetown. Creighton won on the road at UConn and has that aforementioned win over Kansas to boast in non-conference play, and none of their losses outside of Georgetown are going to work against them down the stretch. A weaker Big East than usual has given Creighton the grounds to stack up wins, though they'll need at least one victory in the deathly stretch of Marquette, UConn, and St. John's they've got coming up later this month. If they can avoid disaster there and continue to take care of things against the bottom feeders of the conference, there's a real good shot they're right here in the 8-9 matchup.

Clemson (18-5, 10-2 ACC)

10-2 in the ACC doesn't mean what it used to, and this Clemson team still has some work to do even now into February with only five losses. Clemson is really riding on the coat tails of that Kentucky win in November - if it weren't for that, this team may not even have a spot in the field. Clemson does have a solid OT win over Pitt in ACC play, but it's been a beatdown of the bottom of the conference aside from that and losses to Louisville and sub-.500 Georgia Tech last night. But wins are wins, and the Tigers have no shortage of those, and if they keep winning at this rate they will not be denied a spot back in the big dance. The biggest game of the year for Clemson is this Saturday at home against Duke, just about their only remaining opportunity at anything close to a big-time win, and if they can somehow pull that one off there then they'd be in line for a massive rise up this list.

St. Mary's (20-3, 10-0 WCC)

The Gaels won their Super Bowl this past Saturday at home against Gonzaga, improving to 10-0 in league play in a major boost to their hopes at another at-large bid. St. Mary's hadn't had many close calls in conference play to that point, and they're well on their way to the regular season title with more than a three-game lead over the next best team. To their credit, St. Mary's filled their non-conference schedule with notable west coast schools and notched three wins in that span over power conference foes, and all three of their losses were close games before they started mowing down the rest of the WCC. This conference looks like the Gaels' to lose, something we don't often hear, and barring an unexpected collapse they should have a clear path to a third consecutive NCAA Tournament bid.

Oklahoma (16-6, 3-6 SEC)

The Sooners were one of the last remaining undefeated teams after a 13-0 start, but that was never going to be sustainable entering their first season in the SEC. Oklahoma hasn't done themselves many favors since conference play began, but the three wins they've mustered thus far are enough to keep them in the mix after a perfect non-conference. The Sooners took down Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan early in the season and beat Vanderbilt by 30 this past Saturday, so they've got some quality wins plus no losses that can be held too hard against them. Even hanging around .500 the rest of this brutal schedule will be a tall task for the Sooners, but doing anything close to it should be enough to land them a spot in the field.

9 Seeds

Vanderbilt (16-6, 4-5 SEC)

Much like what we saw on the gridiron, 2024-25 has been the year of Vanderbilt's revival, as they're off to one of their best starts in quite some time and positioning themselves well to compete for their first NCAA Tournament since 2017. The Commodores didn't have to go through too much out of conference, finishing the slate at 12-1, and it's narrow wins over Tennessee and Kentucky on consecutive Saturdays that has pushed them over the top. To keep this exciting season going, Vandy is going to have to grind out some wins in a stretch with six in a row agains top-25 teams beginning on the 11th of this month, and grabbing at least two wins there could give them the leverage they need. Six losses this late in the season is an achievement in itself for Vandy, and a Commodores team with just one home loss all season is going to have to dig deep to snatch a few more big-time wins to stay on the right side of this bubble.

West Virginia (14-8, 5-6 Big 12)

The Mountaineers dropped one they really could've used last night against TCU, a real wake-up call that they're going to have to bring it more than just certain nights if they really want to make this thing happen without Tucker DeVries. With wins over Kansas, Iowa State, Arizona, and Gonzaga, it's clear as day that this team gets up with a big name on the other side. That being said, they've got five double-digits losses and more than a few performances that make you really question if this is a tournament team, and it will likely come down to whether their long list of signature wins outweighs the all-too-frequent off nights. Teams like this tend to get the nod from the committee, but they're going to have to get more from everyone not named Javon Small if they're going to hang in this race.

Baylor (14-8, 6-5 Big 12)

Baylor has continued to tread above water through one of the very toughest schedules in all of college basketball, and it's given them a lot of leverage for gaffes along the way while staying on the right side of the tournament bubble. The Bears' 21-point comeback win over Kansas on Saturday was massive, as they hadn't stacked up well with the top of the Big 12 and were humbled soon after in a 14-point loss to Texas Tech. Baylor has a buzzer-beating win over St. John's in non-conference play plus a victory over Arkansas, building up a resume that is good, but just barely good enough to remain comfortably into the field. Baylor still has a number of great opportunities coming up to bolster their tournament hopes, and they'll need to take advantage of a few with not too much room for error moving forward.

10 Seeds

New Mexico (19-4, 11-1 Mountain West)

Probably the team I view with the highest ceiling of any of the non power conference schools is New Mexico, working through a respectable non-conference slate and looking like the team to beat in the Mountain West two thirds into this college basketball season. The Lobos set an early tone with a win over UCLA, and they took down USC as well after losses to St. John's and Arizona State. Their two losses since have come in OT and by a point, and outside of that they've really done no wrong. New Mexico made a statement with a rout of Utah State last Saturday, and they've largely rolled through the Mountain West outside of a last-second loss to San Jose State. Donovan Dent has been one of the best guards in college basketball, and he has the Lobos well on their way to an at-large bid if they keep playing like this.

Utah State (20-3, 10-2 Mountain West)

Utah State has been one of the very best of the mid-majors this season, as their 20-3 record shouldn't be taken lightly in an underrated conference plus a decent non-conference slate. The Aggies had big non-conference wins over Iowa and St. Mary's and opened Mountain West play with a narrow win over SDSU, and they've looked very sharp aside from a hiccup against UNLV and a humbling loss to New Mexico. Three losses with a schedule barely lighter than say, St. John's, and this Utah State should be fine if they keep winning at a pace like this. Plenty more challenges await, and the Aggies have played far from their best basketball these last three games and will look to regroup with a get-right game with Fresno State before the schedule picks back up.

Georgia (16-7, 4-6 SEC)

The 'Dawgs were NIT champions a year ago, and they've turned that into an even more competitve 2024-25 with a real chance of slipping into the field for the first time in forever. The SEC hasn't been particularly kind to them thus far - a recent four-game skid could've taken them out of the tournament picture completely - but they've bounced back winning two of their last three against teams they should be beating, and all of a sudden they're right back in the mix. Georgia has a big win over Kentucky to boast plus a win months ago over St. John's that could really come in handy, and in a conference only forgiving in the sense that a bunch of losses won't kill you, none of their seven losses will really hurt come tournament time. Georgia's next five games are against ranked teams, so it's really make-or-break time as we move into the last full month of the regular season.

San Diego State (15-5, 8-3 Mountain West)

The Aztecs always seem to find their way into the mix, and this year is no exception. Non-conference wins over Houston and Creighton set the tone for this team to compete for a tournament bid, and while an 8-3 start to Mountain West play may not have been the best they could do, it's enough to keep them on the right side of the bubble. They've fallen to the other two MW teams in the field already but will have a chance to avenge both of those losses later this month, and the UNLV loss is the only defeat you could really point to as a concern, and that's a Rebels team that has played the entire top of the conference tough. If the Aztecs can split the back-to-back against Utah State and New Mexico and avert serious disaster the rest of the way, this should be a team in good shape to return to the tournament and a bigger threat than most of the power conference schools scattered across the bubble.

11 Seeds

Ohio State (13-9, 5-6 Big Ten)

It hasn't been easy getting a read on this Ohio State team here in 2024-25, and let the month of December where they lost two games by 24+ points and then went and beat Kentucky by 20 tell you all that you need to know. The Buckeyes have a case for the hardest schedule in college basketball, so they've got the breathing room for more losses than most and have wins over Texas, Kentucky, and at Purdue to prop up their resume. All three of those wins came away from home, with the Purdue game one of just five times the Boilermakers have lost at home in the last four years, and they rolled Penn State on the road as well last Thursday before falling to Illinois. The Buckeyes have had some high highs and low lows over the course of this season, but the committee tends to give the benefit to teams with schedules like this and I expect that to continue if Ohio State can finish their last 9+ games anywhere over .500.

Gonzaga (16-7, 7-3 WCC)

It hasn't been the season we're accustomed to from Mark Few and Gonzaga, loading up their non-conference schedule as always but finishing without the big-time wins to show for it, and then going into conference play and already matching their highest loss total since 2015-16 less than a week into February. Even with all that this is still a 'Zags team that looks tournament-made, opening the season with a 38-point decimation of Baylor and seeing all seven of their losses either overtime defeats or losses by six or fewer points. This Gonzaga team can't really afford many more slip-ups, maybe one or two the rest the way and they'd still be safe, as outside of a February 22nd tilt with St. Mary's plus the WCC Tournament, there aren't going to many opportunities. to boost this resume further. It won't be as high a seeding as we're used to seeing, but Gonzaga still controls their own path back to another NCAA Tournament.

Texas (15-8, 4-6 SEC)

It's been a rocky season for Texas so far, looking overmatched by their two real non-conference opponents but holding their own a bit more when facing the tall tasks of the SEC. The Longhorns have snagged a few good wins for their resume in conference play, notching victories over Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas A&M, and you have to figure the committee gives a certain edge to a team dealt a schedule like this. Last night's home loss to Arkansas was definitely a setback and leaves them with less room for error moving forward, but having played the likes of Auburn and Tennessee down to the wire already, you have to feel this Texas team might be due for a signature win at some point down the line. Unless you consider Arkansas in that category, which I don't, then Texas still doesn't have any alarming losses, and hovering around the .500 mark in conference should be enough to launch them into the field.

Arkansas (14-8, 3-6 SEC)

Arkansas was surely on the outside looking in before these past two games, a pair of road wins over Kentucky and Texas that all of a sudden has them on the right side of the bubble, at least the way I see it. John Calipari's guys could've easily packed it in amidst their brutal start to conference play and Boogie Fland's injury, but if there's one thing you can say about Cal, it's that you can always count on his guys to give it their all for their head coach. Arkansas has the win over Michigan in non-conference play as well that's continued to age well, and they don't have a bad loss either in a resume that is suddenly not only salvageable, but maybe even enough to slip in with such an unimpressive bubble. The Razorbacks probably needed this pair of wins to have any real tournament hopes, but they've got it done with a massive test against Alabama up next on Saturday.

Nebraska (15-8, 5-7 Big Ten)

Nebraska really might have just played themselves back into the field with this recent stretch, winning three in a row including two away from home and two over ranked teams. The six-game losing streak that preceded this run wasn't pretty, needless to say, but no loss in there was a total dealbreaker that could've closed the door on their tournament hopes. The Cornhuskers have a win over UCLA on the resume too, plus a road win over Creighton that's continue to look better with age. It hasn't been a pretty season for Nebraska thus far by any means, yet I look at so many teams hovered around the bubble and can't find the wins on those resumes that match that of these Cornhuskers. Fred Hoiberg's bunch has as much momentum as they've had all season, and they need to take it and run.

BYU (15-7, 6-5 Big 12)

BYU's resume won't blow you away by any means, but they've continued to hang around in the Big 12 with a recent four-game win streak propping them into the tournament field. Wins over Baylor and at UCF is probably as good as it's gotten for the Cougars thus far, but in a year with a weaker bubble than most seven losses for a Big 12 team must just be enough to make the cut if the season ended today. BYU definitely wishes they had a few of those close losses back, and it's admittedly a flawed resume and a testament to what we're working with at the very end of this bracket. The Cougars missed a golden opportunity in their recent home game against Arizona, and a few of those games are going to have to go their way down the stretch with no shortage of opportunities still to come.